U.S. Travel Forecasts Long Road to Recovery for Business Travel

Lingering COVID restrictions and a patchwork approach to reopening across the country will prevent the economically crucial business travel segment from recovering until at least 2024, according to a Tourism Economics analysis released by the U.S. Travel Association.

Travel overall is by far the U.S. industry hardest hit by the ongoing fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic. Spending on travel for large, in-person professional meetings and events (PMEs) declined by 76 percent last year—a $97 billion loss in spending. With vaccinations and infection rates in the U.S. trending favorably, restrictions lowered, and traveler confidence rebounding, domestic leisure travel is projected to reach 99 percent of its pre-pandemic peak in 2022 and to grow steadily thereafter. But in the absence of clear and consistent guidance from federal health authorities on PMEs, business-related travel is not expected to recover its pre-pandemic volume for an additional two years. Only about a third (35 percent) of U.S. businesses are currently engaging in any business-related travel.

A staggering 65 percent of all U.S. jobs lost in 2020 were supported by travel, and they cannot fully recover without a swift return of all segments of travel, particularly in-person PMEs, according to the analysis. One of the major factors in the slow return of PMEs is the uneven patchwork of guidance that currently governs large gatherings from jurisdiction to jurisdiction nationwide. U.S. Travel is urging the adoption of federal guidance that is clear and consistent—and that recognizes that health and safety measures can be more readily implemented at PMEs than at other forms of large gatherings.

Leading health care scientists at the Ohio State University also released a white paper that includes evidence-based analysis—focused on a scientific review of proven health and safety measures substantiated over the last year—showing that it is safe to return to conducting and attending PMEs. In The Scientific-Based Evidence for Conducting Safe and Healthy Professional Meetings and Events (PMEs), the authors rely on science and guidance from trusted sources, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) Network to outline the best practices to ensure a safe return to large-scale, in-person PMEs. The paper also differentiates PMEs from other large gatherings, noting that PMEs offer a controlled environment that allows for scientifically proven safety measures.

Polling from Freeman indicates that 85 percent of American workers view in-person events as “irreplaceable,” and, according to APCO Insight, 81 percent who attended work-related PMEs before the pandemic miss doing so and are likely to attend such events in the future.

Said U.S. Travel president and CEO Roger Dow in a wrriten statement: “A thriving travel industry—and the broader U.S. economy—are dependent on the return of business travel and PMEs. Americans are eager to reconnect with colleagues in person, via business meetings, conferences and conventions, and these scientific analysis and recommendations make clear it is possible and safe to do so.”

To support the return of professional meetings and events, a coalition of travel industry businesses and organizations, under the U.S. Travel Association umbrella, is launching an initiative called “Let’s Meet There” to advance the full and safe reopening of the business travel sector.

Related Stories